Nexus Brief

Climate and energy dynamics compound and catalyze global risks to security.

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How Nexus works Six channels of connection

Follow the connections.

Catch up on the latest developments, follow trends and see how issues are being covered around the world.

The six channels group connections between countries. Follow them to see how change in one place could weaken or strengthen conditions elsewhere, and what the evidence shows.

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Six channels. A connected world.

Trade and supply chains: Goods, energy and transport links.
International finance: Investment, debt and financial flows.
Migration and humanitarian: People, displacement and assistance.
Geopolitical disruption: Conflict, competition and strategic dependencies.
Shared natural systems: Water, ecosystems and hazards across borders.
International governance: Cooperation, institutions and shared rules.

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Start with what changed.

What changed, why it matters and the evidence behind it.

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01 What is changing

Latest Developments

The main developments and what they could mean for other countries.

Global · Selected by Nexus
Latest brief · 2026-09-26
Published 2026-09-29

Australia · Evidence 2026-09-24

Rising fuel costs impact regional Australian communities

Escalating petrol and diesel prices, linked to conflict in the Middle East, are increasing transport and living costs for regional households and industries. This creates supply risks due to reduced regional fuel storage capacity.

What happened. Escalating petrol and diesel prices, linked to conflict in the Middle East, are increasing transport and living costs for regional households and industries. This creates supply risks due to reduced regional fuel storage capacity.

Why it matters. The source reports a rise in petrol and diesel costs linked to Middle East conflict, which constitutes a fuel price shock.

As fuel costs escalate again, regional Australia is hurting ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Thailand · Evidence 2026-09-23

Bangkok flood disaster declaration

Heavy rainfall has inundated Bangkok neighbourhoods, forcing thousands to evacuate and overwhelming the city's drainage infrastructure. The city government has declared a flood disaster following the worst rains in years.

What happened. Heavy rainfall has inundated Bangkok neighbourhoods, forcing thousands to evacuate and overwhelming the city's drainage infrastructure. The city government has declared a flood disaster following the worst rains in years.

Why it matters. The source reports that heavy rainfall in Bangkok has forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes, which constitutes disaster displacement within a country.

Thailand’s Bangkok declares flood disaster across city as thousands flee from homes ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Indonesia · Evidence 2026-09-16

Intense wildfires in Borneo and Sumatra

Indonesia is experiencing intense wildfires, particularly on Borneo and Sumatra, driven by drought and El Nino conditions.

What happened. Indonesia is experiencing intense wildfires, particularly on Borneo and Sumatra, driven by drought and El Nino conditions.

Why it matters. The source reports that super El Nino weather conditions are driving intense wildfires and drought in Indonesia.

Indonesia's wildfires may last until early November, minister says ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

A change here.
An effect elsewhere.

See how changes in one country could affect others. The six channels group these cross-border connections.

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02 How risks connect

Global at a glance

Follow reviewed connections between countries, then explore the evidence on the map. The map includes reviewed connections beyond the stories in this Brief.

Open Risk Map ↗

Explore Risk Map

Animated preview · Open the map to choose a channel and follow the evidence.

Climate context · source readingsClimate Signals & interpretation →

ENSO · Niño-3.4 +3.00 °C 2026-09-16 · Stale NOAA CPC ↗

Indian Ocean Dipole +0.15 °C 2026-05-01 · Stale NOAA PSL ↗

Land warming / decade +0.40 °C 1996–2025 ERA5 · methods →

See where attention is shifting.

See which issues are getting more coverage in the news. More reporting does not necessarily mean greater risk.

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03 Narrative signals

What’s gaining attention?

Two views of changing news coverage, based on the reporting Nexus tracks.

Energy security coverage

Australia-focused coverage · model-assisted

+119%More coverage activity · vs previous 14 days

331 accepted readings · previously 151

Weekly accepted readings · complete weeks only · gaps remain unfilled

18 Sept 2026–2 Oct 2026

Climate risk coverage

Cross-border climate coverage · model-assisted

+90%More coverage activity · vs previous 14 days

196 accepted readings · previously 103

Weekly accepted readings · complete weeks only · gaps remain unfilled

18 Sept 2026–2 Oct 2026

How to read these signals

A reading is an accepted topic tag in Nexus’s analysis of sampled reporting. One article can carry several tags. These signals show attention within the tracked sources; they do not measure all news coverage, public opinion or the level of risk.

Change compares two equal windows ending at the latest analysed item. Each window needs at least eight readings for a percentage comparison. Changing sources, ingestion or analytical methods can also change the counts. The charts show eight complete calendar weeks.

View the published aggregate data →

Choose a channel.
Follow its connections.

Explore how risks spread through trade, finance, people, geopolitics, shared natural systems and international cooperation.

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04 Connections by channel

Across the channels

Up to five developments in this channel. Follow their connections on the Risk Map.

Trade and supply chains · Goods, energy and transport links.

Explore these connections on the map →

Australia · Evidence 2026-09-24

Rising fuel costs impact regional Australian communities

Why it matters. The source reports a rise in petrol and diesel costs linked to Middle East conflict, which constitutes a fuel price shock.

As fuel costs escalate again, regional Australia is hurting ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Australia · Evidence 2026-09-24

Coal power prices increase due to mine flooding and generator outages

Coal-fired power prices were driven upward by flooding at east coast mines and outages at ageing generators.

What happened. Coal-fired power prices were driven upward by flooding at east coast mines and outages at ageing generators.

Why it matters. The source reports that coal power prices were driven upward due to flooding at mines and generator outages, which fits the category of commodity price shocks.

The Coalition says it wants cheaper power, not ideology. But its evidence-free plan is all ideology | Adam Morton ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Israel · Evidence 2026-09-24

Algae bloom reduces Israeli desalination capacity

An exceptional algae bloom has clogged filters at five of Israel's six main desalination plants, causing water shortages and reduced operating levels.

What happened. An exceptional algae bloom has clogged filters at five of Israel's six main desalination plants, causing water shortages and reduced operating levels. Scientists attribute the bloom to untreated sewage discharge from Gaza's destroyed wastewater treatment system into the Mediterranean.

Why it matters. The source reports that an algae bloom clogged filters at Israeli desalination plants, which are critical energy-system-related water production components, but the cause is attributed to sewage discharge.

Israel facing water shortages caused by destruction of Gaza’s treatment plants ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Syria · Evidence 2026-09-23

Syrian government increases fuel prices

The Syrian government raised prices for all fuel types, including a 40% increase in diesel, citing global costs and local shortages.

What happened. The Syrian government raised prices for all fuel types, including a 40% increase in diesel, citing global costs and local shortages.

Why it matters. The source reports a government-mandated increase in fuel prices in Syria, driven by global costs and local shortages.

Is Syria's 'new' economy for the rich only? ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

United States · Evidence 2026-09-23

US-China trade truce extended until January

US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an extension of the current trade truce from its November expiration to January. This extension follows a previous agreement in South Korea regarding tariffs and rare earth export controls.

What happened. US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an extension of the current trade truce from its November expiration to January. This extension follows a previous agreement in South Korea regarding tariffs and rare earth export controls.

Why it matters. The source reports an agreement where China eases export controls on rare earths in exchange for reduced US tariffs, which relates to the control of strategic inputs.

After Xi-Trump summit, US-China rivalry remains frozen. Is this to Beijing's advantage? ↗ Locate on map →Open full detail →

Follow the issues over time.

See how today’s developments fit into ongoing issues, and what has changed along the way.

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05 Follow ongoing issues

Major Issues

Ongoing situations, the developments shaping them and why they matter across borders. Recently updated issues appear first.

1 tracked issues · Swipe or use the arrow buttons to explore. Open an issue’s history to see past developments.

tracking

El Niño 2026-27

A record-breaking El Niño formed in 2026, amplifying disaster pressures globally, while global average temperatures continue to rise.

Why it matters. Many countries have been directly affected, while the indirect effects proliferate less clearly.

1 development · 1 in the last 7 days

Latest development · 2026-09-26

Forecast of 'super' El Niño summer

History and evidence · 1 entries

2026-09-26 · Development
Forecast of 'super' El Niño summer
A 'super' El Niño summer is identified as a looming pressure for the region.
The source reports a forecast of a 'super' El Niño event occurring this summer, which falls under the category of ENSO behaviour.

Despite the doom and gloom, Australia can't afford to write off AI ↗

Nexus Brief brings together selected developments, with sources and dates. Coverage is still expanding. The latest Brief stays available between updates.