Niño-3.4 SST anomaly · weekly
+3.00 °C
Observation overdue · 22 days old
Observation period: · observed basis
Weekly ocean-temperature context. This is not RONI or an official ENSO phase declaration. Source
Climate, energy and security
Climate Signals
Current conditions, observed change and conditional projections — with their periods and baselines.
Seasonal climate context
Indian Ocean Dipole · monthly
+0.15 °C
Observation overdue · 160 days old
Observation period: · observed basis
Monthly HadISST-based index from NOAA PSL; publication can lag by several months. Source
Indices describe ocean conditions. Their signs do not indicate benefit or harm, and do not establish the cause of an event.
Observed change · Global
Temperature history
Anomaly from 1995–2014 · °C
+0.40 °C per decade over 1996–2025.
ERA5 reanalysis combines observations with a physical model. Published coverage may be incomplete.Looking ahead · Conditional projection
2041–2060
+1.00 °C mean change from 2015–2034
No defensible member range is available for this view; uncertainty has not disappeared. The selected pathway is conditional, not a forecast. Observations and projections retain their own baselines.Security relevance
Changing heat and rainfall can alter water availability, food production, energy demand and infrastructure stress. Consequences depend on local exposure, resilience and cross-border connections.
Explore climate context on the map →Sources, methods and appropriate use
Only reviewed public climate products appear here. Copied tail values and incomplete years are excluded. Annual anomalies use the stated baseline; absolute model projections are differenced within the same model series, never against ERA5 levels.
Published 2026-09-30. Regional and global lines are area-weighted means of the published country products over land, on the same jurisdiction polygons the products were cut from. They carry no member range: a region's 10th percentile is not the mean of its countries' 10th percentiles, and a combined range needs a regional product from the aggregator. Jurisdictions the geometry excludes (Antarctica) are in no aggregate.
Read product provenance and download reviewed measurements →