- Latest period
- 2100-12-01
- Value · °C
- 29.52
- Valid periods
- 1032 / 1032
- Latest area coverage
- 100.0%
- Spatial scale
- country
- Release status
- Provisional / unconfirmed
Absolute values; no anomaly baseline applied. Reviewed 2026-09-15.
Method, coverage and provenance
Area-weighted regional monthly means from 26 CMIP6 models under SSP3-7.0. Value is the across-model median; the p10 and p90 fields carry the LOWEST and HIGHEST member values, not interpolated percentiles, because five named models are not a sample a percentile can be read from. Temperature converted from K; precipitation converted from kg m-2 s-1 to mm per month using each model's OWN calendar month length. Native calendars: 360_day: 2 (KACE-1-0-G, UKESM1-0-LL); 365_day: 9 (BCC-CSM2-MR, CAMS-CSM1-0, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, CanESM5-CanOE, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0); gregorian: 6 (CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, MIROC6); julian: 1 (IITM-ESM); noleap: 4 (GFDL-ESM4, MCM-UA-1-0, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1); proleptic_gregorian: 4 (ACCESS-CM2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0). Output periods are real calendar months. Each model is weighted on its own grid; the provenance grid figures describe the COARSEST member, which bounds the ensemble, rather than any one model's grid.
26 CMIP6 models, one run each. One run per model is deliberate: a model contributing fifty members would otherwise outvote the rest of the archive. The value is the across-model mean and the p10/p90 fields are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the member distribution, the range the IPCC AR6 Atlas reports for regional projections. Members are weighted by climwip-independence/1: the ClimWIP independence term (Knutti et al. 2017; Brunner et al. 2020), which shares one vote between models whose historical runs resemble each other, with the shape parameter set to this region's median inter-model distance rather than calibrated by a perfect-model test; there is no performance term, so no model is up- or down-weighted for matching observations. The weighting leaves an effective 17.7 of 26 models (Kish), which is the number the spread is actually estimated from. This is not a calibrated confidence interval, not a probability distribution over outcomes, and carries no downscaling or bias correction — regional absolute values retain each model's own bias. Ensemble membership is part of the campaign digest, because adding or removing a model changes both the mean and the spread. A month is emitted only where every member supplies it. Realisation note: for CESM2 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r4i1p1f1 SSP3-7.0); MCM-UA-1-0 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r1i1p1f2 SSP3-7.0), the historical run is a different realisation from the projection published here. CDS serves whichever realisation it holds for a named model, and the request carries no variant key. The independence weighting takes its distances from the historical fields, so for these members the run that sets the weight is not the run being weighted. The last 24 month(s) are NOT model output: no member of the ensemble runs past 2098-12-01, so that month's value is repeated to the end of the series, and each such point carries carried_from. A repeated value understates a rising trend, which under a high scenario is steepest at the end, so the closing figure is a floor rather than a projection.
Geometry: admin0:sha256:afff7d5dc22279a90216f1ad1c8d50dff130f6b176e5720ce968f306a03c7749 · weighting: area · method: coterran-cmip6-ensemble/1.
5 intersecting cells; 2.8 effective cells · 2.79° × 2.81° grid. Grid-limited: the regional result draws on fewer than four effective cells.
Minimum valid area: 95.0% · coverage is represented area, not accuracy.
Campaign SHA-256: 04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46751df63480a7168561b832e72009a1a28ae3f9
28 input checksums and software versions
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campaign · campaign.json · 436,412 bytesecd5f66e89c5e750159802107a974d404d2f42444a165ffbd74406f424b65314
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-access_cm2.zip · 77,349,518 bytes620a5f274dad1b9f458b71a2c07a55d7f0b6b1335e653ddf9961da4eda033497
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-awi_cm_1_1_mr.zip · 235,217,370 bytes9185ce5a45274a292d3c63c25404b3adeb7b789c22f8795e8f46e87a5d01331d
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-bcc_csm2_mr.zip · 211,654,352 bytesde3414e68d272aecc1805afec50460b2c30690224cb206e2b30a6aa0865d744b
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cams_csm1_0.zip · 209,198,395 bytes99f72851eff1c3ebac527e98616c51041f3680481936719ebd26b58df8f9d981
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-canesm5_canoe.zip · 27,510,505 bytes44696dea77f338ff2477ba404d5b84f89e46f60cb14aba7ec2100d0a808c1ded
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cesm2.zip · 126,356,977 bytese3d0f000b88b229df0306efaa44f94bd55b6bf418a06130307bc94fcecba1b33
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cmcc_cm2_sr5.zip · 127,260,127 bytes74d5ff8e8d6918815a09794f8d6ff7565ec0ba923036ee4c753eae0275e32aeb
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cnrm_cm6_1.zip · 74,861,564 bytesb8f0da903fe9d6a20f01b8a96c9a8be80e5b028a17aff4f577b4c144d7792a2f
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cnrm_cm6_1_hr.zip · 532,999,481 bytesabf2dd08b0fbf7ba8276d6f3a2c5cd5567c3c1146387c2d4afb9646b77bff51b
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-cnrm_esm2_1.zip · 74,874,319 bytes781edf4e640ced1b2f8093757296bf47be34499cabd0d446e47276255ff504c7
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-fgoals_f3_l.zip · 214,295,589 byteseb27bfcdc7281e63583bead1413961db20812d7c487170191ea5b2db4ead031c
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-fgoals_g3.zip · 59,871,829 bytes65d252c54b7ba10a74617f1c706c7e449ad8d8e35a07fb84102a9e3ae3d2b775
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climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-iitm_esm.zip · 57,089,047 bytes47fe5b035c79945b4865aef053aee9e4d451f6bddbb366efb4b4adb590f17442
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-inm_cm4_8.zip · 52,660,874 bytes9c99decd753b54a88f06e1cc889b1466a51c54da4f11fd083dfe27d351f48de1
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-inm_cm5_0.zip · 52,673,800 bytes1e6e4fb45393df9301319e51602b8a7670761783c78b8bf02cef25e703168b90
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-ipsl_cm6a_lr.zip · 49,698,003 bytes17b58850bcbea810789ea6e8230a837cb4da701d70d8403e466bfcd87160cef9
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-kace_1_0_g.zip · 58,269,354 bytesa1db2127f7b4280c5b6a855e4b475ff7b151f14345cb3fcc8f35ac70a8d2cb97
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-mcm_ua_1_0.zip · 31,996,570 bytesb5aec8ae3556d2d13aec140d5da157939fcd21b8cb42e73e96b14eebefb2a746
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-miroc6.zip · 74,774,854 bytes616b581af686885ae12d2d3ced20f29542296dd04153384b93f9fb3a03432b71
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-miroc_es2l.zip · 19,611,484 bytes782878e196dd3473b8821c1054d288efa0d0f54193d21175b8e6c3a5c3b6ed4d
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-mpi_esm1_2_lr.zip · 34,735,821 bytesfb04f81db6014db7ff2c34ebc65df7c53688977eba1bf23ea181ab1a83990cca
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-mri_esm2_0.zip · 117,254,919 bytesadf1796790f8d187ebcdaa272832ec32e50e3b64c890ffb22dfc2423aa01127e
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-noresm2_mm.zip · 126,138,685 bytes78848e39f358814a558ab30edf7ff307e5ad7c9fedf405b65454af608e02f315
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-taiesm1.zip · 126,316,476 bytesef3462eff14dab8ff809447091897b318e8973d92922584194dd75c704643e82
climate_grid · tas-ssp3_7_0-ukesm1_0_ll.zip · 66,445,194 bytesf781b8f30cfa01b7f2981400d3ed5645c8c82ef9f09644e9bbecdd8d46592265
numpy==2.5.3 · pandas==3.0.5 · xarray==2026.7.0 · shapely==2.1.2 · netCDF4==1.7.4 · Python==3.14.6
Regional input SHA-256: e4e9f5ae293009c9292b4b790aebc14df064cc4bf46aebe36ea3aef25e33c9ea
Source version: projections-cmip6 · revision: campaign-04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46.
Provider issue time unavailable. Retrieved 2026-09-14T23:30:31Z.