- Latest period
- 2100-12-01
- Value · mm
- 176.84
- Valid periods
- 1032 / 1032
- Latest area coverage
- 100.0%
- Spatial scale
- country
- Release status
- Provisional / unconfirmed
Absolute values; no anomaly baseline applied. Reviewed 2026-09-15.
Method, coverage and provenance
Area-weighted regional monthly means from 26 CMIP6 models under SSP3-7.0. Value is the across-model median; the p10 and p90 fields carry the LOWEST and HIGHEST member values, not interpolated percentiles, because five named models are not a sample a percentile can be read from. Temperature converted from K; precipitation converted from kg m-2 s-1 to mm per month using each model's OWN calendar month length. Native calendars: 360_day: 2 (KACE-1-0-G, UKESM1-0-LL); 365_day: 9 (BCC-CSM2-MR, CAMS-CSM1-0, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, CanESM5-CanOE, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0); gregorian: 6 (CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, MIROC6); julian: 1 (IITM-ESM); noleap: 4 (GFDL-ESM4, MCM-UA-1-0, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1); proleptic_gregorian: 4 (ACCESS-CM2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0). Output periods are real calendar months. Each model is weighted on its own grid; the provenance grid figures describe the COARSEST member, which bounds the ensemble, rather than any one model's grid.
26 CMIP6 models, one run each. One run per model is deliberate: a model contributing fifty members would otherwise outvote the rest of the archive. The value is the across-model mean and the p10/p90 fields are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the member distribution, the range the IPCC AR6 Atlas reports for regional projections. Members are weighted by climwip-independence/1: the ClimWIP independence term (Knutti et al. 2017; Brunner et al. 2020), which shares one vote between models whose historical runs resemble each other, with the shape parameter set to this region's median inter-model distance rather than calibrated by a perfect-model test; there is no performance term, so no model is up- or down-weighted for matching observations. The weighting leaves an effective 17.6 of 26 models (Kish), which is the number the spread is actually estimated from. This is not a calibrated confidence interval, not a probability distribution over outcomes, and carries no downscaling or bias correction — regional absolute values retain each model's own bias. Ensemble membership is part of the campaign digest, because adding or removing a model changes both the mean and the spread. A month is emitted only where every member supplies it. Realisation note: for CESM2 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r4i1p1f1 SSP3-7.0); MCM-UA-1-0 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r1i1p1f2 SSP3-7.0), the historical run is a different realisation from the projection published here. CDS serves whichever realisation it holds for a named model, and the request carries no variant key. The independence weighting takes its distances from the historical fields, so for these members the run that sets the weight is not the run being weighted. The last 24 month(s) are NOT model output: no member of the ensemble runs past 2098-12-01, so that month's value is repeated to the end of the series, and each such point carries carried_from. A repeated value understates a rising trend, which under a high scenario is steepest at the end, so the closing figure is a floor rather than a projection.
Geometry: admin0:sha256:afff7d5dc22279a90216f1ad1c8d50dff130f6b176e5720ce968f306a03c7749 · weighting: area · method: coterran-cmip6-ensemble/1.
4 intersecting cells; 2.1 effective cells · 2.79° × 2.81° grid. Grid-limited: the regional result draws on fewer than four effective cells.
Minimum valid area: 95.0% · coverage is represented area, not accuracy.
Campaign SHA-256: 04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46751df63480a7168561b832e72009a1a28ae3f9
28 input checksums and software versions
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climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-access_cm2.zip · 104,313,224 bytesd289181ccde06f7690c2a1f2b1bda4df408dcacbcf877336b9f347a5732048b6
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-awi_cm_1_1_mr.zip · 282,091,582 bytes695c42c571448c4001634139858e0fd6f06e8fc707f1fb59e91e3c362b11c782
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-bcc_csm2_mr.zip · 211,657,075 bytes2f3392f64c15852d5e3e58d4eb9d7e5580e30657befabf5f70dda0117ae76cd1
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-cams_csm1_0.zip · 209,195,185 bytescee758682f64dfeeedf6b2ea4642b932918a3144f0a2052bae196a9493b1a83b
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-canesm5_canoe.zip · 31,423,561 bytes70b57a034098050f036d9b385a9af8818b4e96d9e0e369da9c78af37c025ed0b
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-cesm2.zip · 179,281,084 bytesb4c0b5af866e96a8a1741777412834dd1cad321fce9891ce716633fa480e85cc
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-cmcc_cm2_sr5.zip · 179,121,742 bytescc3368ee4bd3a360cdb1454f8918ac6548a4f44547d7fe1d887e565d359c0ee7
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-cnrm_cm6_1.zip · 105,565,490 bytesfeff452053da8e745942bc7e31d6a74a48aeff118db08d52fd106e90b23d6d3f
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-cnrm_cm6_1_hr.zip · 771,483,313 bytesb80719dedba8b2c94787268a673596106a14f4c86edf6fe31d1836e75b1aac37
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climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-iitm_esm.zip · 66,479,568 bytesaa90d39ee1c1508eac3b4215966a648e9fe009ca97508bb40028f3cacb8f0c9a
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-inm_cm4_8.zip · 72,002,746 bytes29bcfeae2cf7ce4af18930ebc51ca4b1b83bfcae791af21fe51bac7971887699
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-inm_cm5_0.zip · 72,002,177 bytes5e94cbf02600dde1ae760ea578375be5a220d5aa212ccd7a04563710d145965c
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-ipsl_cm6a_lr.zip · 68,213,957 bytes269a4eed9ca902e57bdae4f46d74f5a82adcc35cea20542784cc68bf44b2c072
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-kace_1_0_g.zip · 91,938,525 bytesb2ad779ced28a18326ae5f09af5502dddc9db9f2f99d3cad5387374bb888de83
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-mcm_ua_1_0.zip · 32,020,947 bytese7b647d484cf9c264c58ae8a1793063b518175eb48733648abc685ee97852004
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-miroc6.zip · 105,635,260 bytes1249624e306faf1825e703135e2c2e51be968882e32117854ac1557e11694392
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-miroc_es2l.zip · 27,224,527 bytes9880daf36008c5d6a726dfb0c5b4826364c42b0f447bbf2f1f67ed39a20c66b7
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-mpi_esm1_2_lr.zip · 57,363,574 bytes9581005e539eb20ffe075cb081e1481b6051b222fda046739ba866dcda0430ee
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-mri_esm2_0.zip · 167,467,090 bytesdecae9c91dcde30504c5dc427a3f6e1ae5eab8f640805e77a52eacee431af76e
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-noresm2_mm.zip · 177,918,071 bytesb2b148cd06b5f148c903d6ba95a37d80d881c0cb11caa5f2f722ef179a4ed72d
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-taiesm1.zip · 177,366,605 bytes68e7cb74da31f99cc2d64320a511517ea78793dc0c0ffbc4bf6d1c0a16d96774
climate_grid · pr-ssp3_7_0-ukesm1_0_ll.zip · 100,080,641 bytes35643dec77847a51588dab28e4b4c20a79c7373ff73168ea7ebfeb8973e21ea3
numpy==2.5.3 · pandas==3.0.5 · xarray==2026.7.0 · shapely==2.1.2 · netCDF4==1.7.4 · Python==3.14.6
Regional input SHA-256: e4e9f5ae293009c9292b4b790aebc14df064cc4bf46aebe36ea3aef25e33c9ea
Source version: projections-cmip6 · revision: campaign-04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46.
Provider issue time unavailable. Retrieved 2026-09-14T23:30:31Z.