- Latest period
- 2100-12-01
- Value · mm
- 12.37
- Valid periods
- 1032 / 1032
- Latest area coverage
- 100.0%
- Spatial scale
- country
- Release status
- Provisional / unconfirmed
Absolute values; no anomaly baseline applied. Reviewed 2026-09-15.
Method, coverage and provenance
Area-weighted regional monthly means from 26 CMIP6 models under SSP5-8.5. Value is the across-model median; the p10 and p90 fields carry the LOWEST and HIGHEST member values, not interpolated percentiles, because five named models are not a sample a percentile can be read from. Temperature converted from K; precipitation converted from kg m-2 s-1 to mm per month using each model's OWN calendar month length. Native calendars: 360_day: 2 (KACE-1-0-G, UKESM1-0-LL); 365_day: 9 (BCC-CSM2-MR, CAMS-CSM1-0, CESM2, CMCC-CM2-SR5, CanESM5-CanOE, FGOALS-f3-L, FGOALS-g3, INM-CM4-8, INM-CM5-0); gregorian: 6 (CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, MIROC6); julian: 1 (IITM-ESM); noleap: 4 (GFDL-ESM4, MCM-UA-1-0, NorESM2-MM, TaiESM1); proleptic_gregorian: 4 (ACCESS-CM2, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR, MRI-ESM2-0). Output periods are real calendar months. Each model is weighted on its own grid; the provenance grid figures describe the COARSEST member, which bounds the ensemble, rather than any one model's grid.
26 CMIP6 models, one run each. One run per model is deliberate: a model contributing fifty members would otherwise outvote the rest of the archive. The value is the across-model mean and the p10/p90 fields are the 10th and 90th percentiles of the member distribution, the range the IPCC AR6 Atlas reports for regional projections. Members are weighted by climwip-independence/1: the ClimWIP independence term (Knutti et al. 2017; Brunner et al. 2020), which shares one vote between models whose historical runs resemble each other, with the shape parameter set to this region's median inter-model distance rather than calibrated by a perfect-model test; there is no performance term, so no model is up- or down-weighted for matching observations. The weighting leaves an effective 12.0 of 26 models (Kish), which is the number the spread is actually estimated from. That is under half the roster, so the published spread rests on a small part of the ensemble; inspect before relying on it. This is not a calibrated confidence interval, not a probability distribution over outcomes, and carries no downscaling or bias correction — regional absolute values retain each model's own bias. Ensemble membership is part of the campaign digest, because adding or removing a model changes both the mean and the spread. A month is emitted only where every member supplies it. Realisation note: for CESM2 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r4i1p1f1 SSP5-8.5); MCM-UA-1-0 (r1i1p1f1 historical, r1i1p1f2 SSP5-8.5), the historical run is a different realisation from the projection published here. CDS serves whichever realisation it holds for a named model, and the request carries no variant key. The independence weighting takes its distances from the historical fields, so for these members the run that sets the weight is not the run being weighted. The last 12 month(s) are NOT model output: no member of the ensemble runs past 2099-12-01, so that month's value is repeated to the end of the series, and each such point carries carried_from. A repeated value understates a rising trend, which under a high scenario is steepest at the end, so the closing figure is a floor rather than a projection.
Geometry: admin0:sha256:afff7d5dc22279a90216f1ad1c8d50dff130f6b176e5720ce968f306a03c7749 · weighting: area · method: coterran-cmip6-ensemble/1.
2 intersecting cells; 1.0 effective cells · 2.24° × 3.75° grid. Grid-limited: the regional result draws on fewer than four effective cells.
Minimum valid area: 95.0% · coverage is represented area, not accuracy.
Campaign SHA-256: 04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46751df63480a7168561b832e72009a1a28ae3f9
28 input checksums and software versions
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campaign · campaign.json · 436,412 bytesecd5f66e89c5e750159802107a974d404d2f42444a165ffbd74406f424b65314
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climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-awi_cm_1_1_mr.zip · 282,080,580 bytes4f6b3ba96f2655fe2c23e35e21b45647c184bd1c8e3237c32368bba9ab8a0fd7
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-bcc_csm2_mr.zip · 211,656,662 bytes78d98f47f9724763b83c5289ebdfbf2ba1e38d9017c7f7f1f74f6d698286736e
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-cams_csm1_0.zip · 209,194,438 bytes74493e2f766f2bd56c3c046ee07faaa97e806b02f4410b59ebb79c11c0f7519f
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-canesm5_canoe.zip · 31,421,831 bytesa4ca09b2a5aaa53cbf813d10f90e015bd4a4c8faa4c6b9b8aad1964053bb4db9
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climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-cmcc_cm2_sr5.zip · 179,153,558 bytesa9bdbf11ff6217a3c06cdb04934e9b6a94b1d139f2427a5cc8fb54f53dd69758
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-cnrm_cm6_1.zip · 105,575,547 bytes26e7f4060d2ca9fbcf5174bf88aacd9fc9637437644ea80ef7e8b65365b0d80e
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-cnrm_cm6_1_hr.zip · 771,480,996 bytesc60e8d2931b9049268e57583163dcd8e17e128228c55527da7d4d0ea3f704929
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-cnrm_esm2_1.zip · 105,556,273 bytes8920421a026f640677d7ef79f6f1dc48494fa9ae820b208c5f4dedf31fef6f1c
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-fgoals_f3_l.zip · 214,299,360 bytes00878f76f3c0d348b840b3b9187ce21a6d01b8904745b5077cddddd2e773defe
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climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-gfdl_esm4.zip · 167,186,866 bytese085cc7fdc2cbec5fb06457efafff89be32a9c746cf4d5904326a4e13e7c9cfe
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-iitm_esm.zip · 67,265,928 bytes852541cfdd158def953c66296e062e622544fff8e132f6604d32f3304e675630
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-inm_cm4_8.zip · 72,001,375 bytesc4664a99794702c7838fe7b42195c6f0ec86e27f13a7cbcb814ea0f28c7cf4ca
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-inm_cm5_0.zip · 81,426,529 bytes5595e7343355c7c2e596f0768f43067eb9c02c3196b65c8b76e32eb01a7e34f6
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-ipsl_cm6a_lr.zip · 68,217,769 bytes6a492e6ab51e9be3894dfb950c8c517eb4482b07e357b3177b5826b3fbcf94be
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-kace_1_0_g.zip · 114,390,942 bytese150f35512ee7a0ed1e76fd6c99cc21d0474ddc4b120061ad3999a28a8df60b1
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-mcm_ua_1_0.zip · 32,019,688 bytesf086067092007f9331311085e9858029776bc0f3dcbcb41ad5fa2c66364274fd
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-miroc6.zip · 105,620,620 bytes8fbd8fdaf61089189c6bea5ef3eb10658b4cd65dc99634b300be255686a55727
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-miroc_es2l.zip · 27,223,599 bytese5a12022e14abefce84e63f32ba9a81c3e60c24f65f944c7f5c4b39d6a7cc63d
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climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-mri_esm2_0.zip · 167,460,526 bytes4e41d5bb277903ec9a5315c94bb3bf2336787424c6791ef0dcc087a78586bbef
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-noresm2_mm.zip · 177,930,374 bytes14682eddafb2810fa17cb6f08c49a74235252b3458061aabd5121bba581b4189
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-taiesm1.zip · 177,384,252 bytes40139b3979338d45a57cf1dd0ba3f53b6a5f95d24e98dd15bfb21a2168095fa4
climate_grid · pr-ssp5_8_5-ukesm1_0_ll.zip · 100,090,767 bytes614d98d07bda423d65d8cfc59e807030f6b761302537a56c69d8d78c7e06f606
numpy==2.5.3 · pandas==3.0.5 · xarray==2026.7.0 · shapely==2.1.2 · netCDF4==1.7.4 · Python==3.14.6
Regional input SHA-256: e4e9f5ae293009c9292b4b790aebc14df064cc4bf46aebe36ea3aef25e33c9ea
Source version: projections-cmip6 · revision: campaign-04849d821b9da32b5ebb052a46.
Provider issue time unavailable. Retrieved 2026-09-14T23:30:31Z.