CoTerran — Climate and Security Advisory CoTerran — Climate and Security Advisory
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Physical context

Climate product record

Every reviewed product, one at a time, with its method, provenance and exports. The climate evidence page draws them together.

Seasonal climate context

Niño-3.4 SST anomaly · weekly

+3.00 °C
Observation overdue · 22 days old -0.80 3.00 2025-09-24 2026-09-16

Observation period: · observed basis

Weekly ocean-temperature context. This is not RONI or an official ENSO phase declaration. Source

Indian Ocean Dipole · monthly

+0.15 °C
Observation overdue · 160 days old -0.69 0.95 2022-02-01 2026-05-01

Observation period: · observed basis

Monthly HadISST-based index from NOAA PSL; publication can lag by several months. Source

Indices describe ocean conditions. Their signs do not indicate benefit or harm, and do not establish the cause of an event.

Reviewed climate histories and projections

SYNTH AS OF 2026-09-30 06:35Z · 207h · STALE

What these projections support, and what they do not

Baseline risk-change interpretation: the direction, rough pace and relative scale of change between countries and between scenarios.

Not adaptation decision-making. These are country-level means on coarse global model grids, with no downscaling and no bias correction. They must not be used for siting, engineering design thresholds, local hazard assessment, or adaptation investment appraisal.

Of 237 published jurisdiction(s), 147 draw on fewer than four effective grid cells in the coarsest contributing model. Each affected product says so in its own method and coverage panel.

Downscaling is planned and not yet part of this platform. Until it lands, a decision that turns on conditions at a particular place needs a regional or statistically downscaled product, not these values.

237Published regions
2370Reviewed products
2Physical variables
Reset

2370 matching product(s), showing 76–100. Each chart retains its own units and baseline.

Use these conditions with regional exposure, a transmission pathway and evidence of consequences. Narrative sentiment, physical hazards and expert judgments remain distinct.